Intelligence Leader Explains Russia's Military Plans
There is a high-ranking intelligence officer in Europe who has shared that Russia won't be in a position to strike NATO this year or the next. However, it seems that Russia is looking to strengthen its military presence along the border of the alliance, especially on the eastern side. This decision will largely depend on how the conflict in Ukraine resolves.
The intelligence officer pointed out that the Russian President shows no signs of ending the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has been a problem for close to four years. The president seems to believe that he has the upper hand in the negotiations with the United States on ending the war.
Increasing Military Presence
According to the officer, Russia's strategy involves establishing new military divisions and expanding its pre-conflict force along the NATO border by two to three times. However, this growth will be largely influenced by the outcome of discussions between Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv about ending the hostilities in Ukraine. This is because Russia will need to keep a significant part of its military inside Ukraine and Russia itself, to discourage any potential actions from Ukraine in the future.
At present, there are not enough resources available for Moscow to launch an attack on NATO. However, Russia has expressed concerns about Europe rearming and potentially carrying out a military strike against Russia in the near future.
Stalling Tactics
Russian officials are believed to be stalling in their discussions with the US, with no serious talk about how to build a meaningful relationship with the country. This insight is based on information gathered from internal Russian conversations by a NATO member nation. The intelligence officer did not reveal how they obtained this information, but pointed out that these discussions have shown that Russian officials view the United States as their main adversary.
Although Russian officials have publicly declared their wish for a negotiated deal, they have shown little willingness to compromise. They remain firm on their demands being met. Discussions between representatives from Russia and Ukraine, facilitated by the US, have been described as constructive and positive by officials from both sides. However, there has been no sign of progress on the key issues in these discussions.
A Stubborn Standoff
The Russian President firmly believes that he can achieve a military victory in Ukraine. A representative from the White House responded to these claims by saying that significant progress had been made in the negotiations to end the war. They pointed to a recent agreement involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia, which led to the release of more than 300 prisoners.
The White House representative, who wished to remain anonymous, stated that this agreement showed that efforts to end the war were making headway. They also revealed that the US had given Ukraine and Russia a deadline in June to reach a settlement. However, the US had set multiple deadlines over the past year, none of which had any noticeable consequences.
Ground Reality
While the Russian President remains fixated on gaining control of all of Ukraine, the situation on the ground is much more complicated. The intelligence officer pointed out that not all Russian officials believe they are winning the war in Ukraine. Lower-level officers understand the severity of the situation on the ground, while higher-level officials receive more positive reports, portraying a more optimistic situation.
These reports that reach the Russian President's desk may be overly optimistic, reflecting only the successes and not the failures. This skewed perspective feeds into the Russian President's belief that he can achieve a military victory in Ukraine and outmaneuver everyone else. It seems that both the Russian and US Presidents are only hearing what they want to from their advisors, creating a distorted view of the reality on the ground in Ukraine.