The High-Stakes American Strategy in Venezuela: A New Direction or A Risky Gamble?
The current administration's approach in Venezuela isn't quite like the regime change that tore apart Iraq's government and society years ago. It's shaping up to be more of a calculated plan to force the remaining members of the Venezuelan administration to bend to the will of the United States.
The Key Player in This Strategic Game
The main focus of this initiative is the acting president of Venezuela, who stepped into the role after the Venezuelan president was taken by US special forces to New York to appear in court. A bold declaration was made recently by the president of the United States, stating that the US was essentially controlling Venezuela, though no specifics were given, hinting at controversy.
The audacious claim of the American president asserting authority over a sovereign nation about 1,000 miles away from the US mainland shows a significant shift in the country's stance towards the rest of the world. The president appears to have been emboldened by the recent operation in Venezuela, issuing criticism of other countries like Colombia and Mexico.
The Risks and Complications of This Approach
While this strategy may require less US resources than previous nation-building efforts, it does come with its own set of challenges and uncertainties, especially given the unpredictable political environment. An unforeseen outcome could be the US distancing itself from the democratic movement in Venezuela.
Meanwhile, the administration is tasked with navigating the intricate aftermath of ordering a daring military operation. They are walking a tightrope, trying to establish a stable authority in Caracas without causing a collapse of the government and potentially triggering civil unrest. They are also trying to avoid any actions that could transform a recent victory into a political catastrophe during a midterm election year.
The Goal of the Strategy
The administration is aiming to wrest control of Venezuela's vast oil reserves for the US. They plan to maintain an oil embargo to coerce Venezuela's remaining leaders into following their directives. It's believed that the demonstrated might of the US military will help to accomplish this goal.
The intent is to stop drug trafficking, prevent further gang activity, and eliminate foreign influences. The administration also wants the oil industry in Venezuela to benefit the people, not adversaries of the United States.
Essentially, the plan for Venezuela is to make its acting president a conduit for US power within her own country. The US president is setting the terms and will dictate the next steps.
The Potential Implications for the Future
If this strategy succeeds, it could transform an adversary into an ally and advance US influence in the Western Hemisphere. It might also alleviate economic hardship in Venezuela by reinvigorating the flow of oil revenues, disrupt drug cartels, and push out foreign influences that are a threat to US national security.
However, this plan also comes with risks. The acting president of Venezuela, despite having good international contacts and connections within the oil industry, has been a prominent figure in the previous regime. There's no evidence that she has abandoned the far-left ideology of the revolution and she may not have much room to cooperate with the US given the complexities and power struggles within the regime in Caracas.
Moreover, the US's shift away from the democratic movement and engagement with regime remnants could be a disappointment to Venezuelans hoping for an end to their political unrest. Meanwhile, this pragmatism is causing anger in the US, raising questions about democratic norms and the role of the US in the world.
While the US is clearly eager for Venezuelan oil and wants to dominate the Western Hemisphere, by courting remnants of the previous regime, the US risks becoming complicit in the repression imposed by a government it has long criticized.