State Leaders Clash Over Redrawing Congressional Districts
In states across the country, political leaders are in a desperate scramble to redraw their U.S. House districts before the upcoming midterm elections. However, their attempts are meeting with countless political and procedural hurdles, and in some instances, outright defiance from state legislators resisting pressures from their party's top brass.
Political Tug-of-War in Kansas
Take Kansas for instance, where a group of Republican lawmakers are pushing for a special session to join other states in revising their districts mid-decade in an attempt to gain a competitive edge in the 2026 congressional elections. Their goal is to secure the necessary support from two-thirds of the legislators in both chambers to overrule the state's Democratic Governor and press ahead. The stakes are high: the U.S. House seat currently occupied by a four-term Democratic Representative.
One Kansas state Representative, a Republican who has not yet lent his support to the effort, has voiced his disapproval. "It's terrible for democracy," he declared. His argument is simple: redistricting was designed to reflect population changes based on the decennial census and nothing more. "This mid-cycle redistricting is being done solely for political purposes, in this case to maintain a Republican majority in the U.S. House," he said. "I don’t think that’s an appropriate use."
Democrats Face Similar Hurdles
Democrats are also encountering resistance as they intensify their redistricting efforts. In Maryland, a high-ranking Democratic legislator has expressed hesitance to partake in map-drawing, cautioning that it will only fuel the ongoing redistricting feud and ultimately benefit Republicans. Democrats are pushing for changes to maps in several other states too, including New York, Virginia, and Illinois.
Historically, the president's party tends to lose ground in midterm elections. If Democrats gain three seats next year, they will win the House and obtain the power to block certain parts of the President's agenda. However, Republicans have more opportunities than Democrats to influence the election outcome through congressional mapmaking.
To date, Republican lawmakers have redrawn seats in three states, potentially adding a total of seven seats to the Republican side.
Democrats' Strategy
The political race heated up this year when the President's team convinced Texas to undertake redistricting and create five additional seats leaning Republican. In the coming week, voters in California will decide whether to counterbalance this move by approving five additional Democratic-leaning seats. This represents the largest number of seats Democrats can secure through a single state's map change.
States now considering new maps are referred to as "third-tier opportunities for redistricting," by an independent political newsletter's deputy editor. He added, "in order to squeeze an advantage, you have to go piecemeal once you get beyond the big hitters. For Democrats, especially, California is all they have."
Virginia: A Major Redistricting Prize
Virginia, a swing state where Democrats hold the majorities in both legislative chambers, is potentially the largest remaining redistricting prize for the party. Currently, Democrats hold six of the state's 11 seats in the U.S. House, and an aggressive map redraw could potentially give the party nine or 10 seats.
However, achieving this will require overcoming numerous hurdles to circumvent the redistricting process the state established five years ago. Under current law, the power to redistrict lies with a bipartisan redistricting commission created by voters through a constitutional amendment.
First, Democrats must pass language to amend the state constitution before the upcoming elections for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and all seats in the House of Delegates. Then, it must be approved again next year in a second legislative session before voters have their say in a statewide referendum.
Virginia Republicans have indicated that they plan to mount legal challenges to any action by the legislature, contending that Democrats have already violated a requirement to pass the proposed constitutional amendment before the election since early voting is underway.
Looking Ahead: Uncertain Outcomes
While Republicans have structural advantages allowing them to secure more seats through redistricting than Democrats, the final outcome of the ongoing redistricting battle remains uncertain. If next year turns out to be a wave election for Democrats, akin to the 2018 midterm elections when the party gained more than 40 House seats, redistricting could not secure a majority for either party.
However, the deputy editor of Inside Elections noted that the current redistricting push has likely altered U.S. politics, by opening "an incredible Pandora’s box … that will persist long after this election cycle. I don’t see what will stop states that have the capacity from simply redrawing every two years."