Midterm Elections Stir Excitement Among Democrats as Presidential Approval Plummets
As the midterm elections draw closer, the Democratic Party is showing increased enthusiasm. This comes as the current President's approval ratings continue their downward trend in public opinion.
This situation does not mirror 2017, the year before the Democrats won control of the House in the President’s first term. The Democrats’ advantage among registered voters is less than it was prior to the 2018 midterms. Despite this, public opinion of the party remains low, even compared to the fall of the President's first year in office.
Presidential Approval Ratings: A Key Factor in Midterms
In midterm election years, the public's perception of the President often holds more weight than opinions of the opposition party. Current approval ratings for the President sit at 37%, a low point for his second term. His disapproval rating has reached 63%, the highest it has been during either of his terms in office.
Democrats Holding Early Advantage
Looking towards the upcoming midterms, the Democrats seem to hold an early lead. 47% of registered voters would vote Democrat if the election were today, compared to 42% who would vote Republican. A higher number of voters have ruled out supporting a Republican candidate than a Democratic one.
Registered voters who identify as Democrats or lean Democratic are far more likely than Republican-aligned voters to be highly motivated to vote next year. This motivation is particularly strong among Democratic-aligned voters who see the state of democracy as a top concern.
Despite internal image issues within the Democratic Party, Democratic-aligned voters remain committed to their party. Even those with a negative view of the party are overwhelmingly behind the Democratic candidate in their district and highly motivated to vote. All in all, Democrats hold a 12-point advantage among those voters who are extremely or very motivated to vote next year.
Americans Unhappy with the State of the Nation and Economy
A large majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the state of the country and the economy. Most believe the President's policies have negatively impacted the nation's economic conditions.
Around 8 in 10 Americans see the government shutdown as a crisis or major problem, and disapprove of the President's handling of it. Similarly, many Americans disapprove of the way each party’s congressional leadership is managing the situation. Overall, about 9 in 10 Americans disapprove of at least one of these three players' handling of the shutdown.
Most Americans also hold negative opinions of the President's performance on several key issues. Most believe that his foreign policy decisions have hurt America's global standing and that he's been too harsh with deportations of immigrants living in the U.S. illegally.
Concern for the state of U.S. democracy is also on the rise, with about a quarter of Americans ranking it as the top issue facing the nation. This concern is particularly high among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.
Presidential Power and Party Support
There is a growing sentiment that the President has overstepped his presidential power, with 61% of Americans agreeing with this statement. The public is also largely unhappy with his decision to remodel the East Wing of the White House.
Most Americans believe the Republicans in Congress are doing too much to support the President. However, most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are happy with the level of support their party is giving to the President.
On the Democratic side, opinions are more divided with a lack of clear party support. Many believe that Democrats in Congress are not doing enough to oppose the President, particularly among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.
The information was gathered through online and phone surveys from a random national sample of 1,245 adults, including 954 registered voters. Results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for the full sample; it is plus or minus 3.6 points for results among registered voters.