Unraveling the Claims of 250,000 Noncitizens on Voting Lists
In a recent pair of events, the President and the Secretary of Homeland Security brought attention to the issue of noncitizen voting. They argue that it poses a threat to the integrity of U.S. elections, despite longstanding evidence suggesting that such instances are rare and have no discernible impact on election outcomes.
Proposed Legislation to Guard Against Noncitizen Voting
The President has been advocating for the passage of a bill, currently held up in the Senate due to concerns about disenfranchising voters. This act would require citizens to present a government-issued photo ID and proof of citizenship, such as a passport or birth certificate, when registering to vote.
As the midterms draw near, the administration has been attempting to gather voting data from various states, but many state leaders have resisted. There have also been legal blocks to these efforts to collect voter information.
Claims of Noncitizen Voters
During the President's address, documents were released by the Department of Homeland Security stating that "over 250,000 non-citizens are illegally registered to vote in just the four states." These states, all governed by Democratic leadership, include California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Nevada. The Secretary of Homeland Security echoed this figure during a subsequent press conference.
However, election experts have cautioned against accepting this number at face value. Errors in databases, mistaken identities, and outdated citizenship details are common issues. Historically, once these factors are taken into account, the actual number of noncitizens registered to vote has been found to be significantly lower than initial estimates.
Questioning the Impact of Noncitizen Voting
The data released by the Department of Homeland Security does not indicate whether these alleged noncitizen registrants actually cast votes or influenced election outcomes. Despite this, the rhetoric employed by the President and the Homeland Security Secretary seems to imply that they have.
For more than a decade, the President has been raising concerns about noncitizens voting. However, it is illegal for noncitizens to vote in federal elections, and there is no evidence to suggest that noncitizen voting has ever had a significant impact on an election's outcome.
Breaking Down the 250,000 Figure
The Department of Homeland Security provided a state-wise breakdown of its count of "potential" noncitizen registered voters. The figures for each state represent less than 1% of that state's registered voters. However, neither the Secretary's comments nor the department's press release explain how this figure was arrived at.
It's unclear what data and methodology were used by federal immigration officials in their review of these four states. Officials from these states have expressed skepticism about the 250,000 figure, claiming that the numbers are speculative at best.
Casting Doubt on the 250,000 Figure
Experts have pointed out several reasons to be cautious about this figure and the way it has been presented. For instance, the Homeland Security's letters to state officials used more cautious language, referring to a "preliminary review" and stating that there "may be as many as" the number of noncitizens they found on the voter rolls.
Another reason for skepticism is that in the past, initial estimates of noncitizen voters have often dropped dramatically after more thorough vetting.
Did They Actually Vote?
A key question in this discussion is whether these alleged noncitizens actually voted. Neither the Secretary nor his department provided information on how many of the 250,000 noncitizens cast ballots and over what time period.
Recent state reviews have found that even when noncitizens are registered, very few actually cast a vote. Of the millions of votes cast in recent years, only a minuscule number have been found to be cast by noncitizens.
In a recent pair of events, the President and the Secretary of Homeland Security brought attention to the issue of noncitizen voting. They argue that it poses a threat to the integrity of U.S. elections, despite longstanding evidence suggesting that such instances are rare and have no discernible impact on election outcomes.
Proposed Legislation to Guard Against Noncitizen Voting
The President has been advocating for the passage of a bill, currently held up in the Senate due to concerns about disenfranchising voters. This act would require citizens to present a government-issued photo ID and proof of citizenship, such as a passport or birth certificate, when registering to vote.
As the midterms draw near, the administration has been attempting to gather voting data from various states, but many state leaders have resisted. There have also been legal blocks to these efforts to collect voter information.
Claims of Noncitizen Voters
During the President's address, documents were released by the Department of Homeland Security stating that "over 250,000 non-citizens are illegally registered to vote in just the four states." These states, all governed by Democratic leadership, include California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Nevada. The Secretary of Homeland Security echoed this figure during a subsequent press conference.
However, election experts have cautioned against accepting this number at face value. Errors in databases, mistaken identities, and outdated citizenship details are common issues. Historically, once these factors are taken into account, the actual number of noncitizens registered to vote has been found to be significantly lower than initial estimates.
Questioning the Impact of Noncitizen Voting
The data released by the Department of Homeland Security does not indicate whether these alleged noncitizen registrants actually cast votes or influenced election outcomes. Despite this, the rhetoric employed by the President and the Homeland Security Secretary seems to imply that they have.
For more than a decade, the President has been raising concerns about noncitizens voting. However, it is illegal for noncitizens to vote in federal elections, and there is no evidence to suggest that noncitizen voting has ever had a significant impact on an election's outcome.
Breaking Down the 250,000 Figure
The Department of Homeland Security provided a state-wise breakdown of its count of "potential" noncitizen registered voters. The figures for each state represent less than 1% of that state's registered voters. However, neither the Secretary's comments nor the department's press release explain how this figure was arrived at.
It's unclear what data and methodology were used by federal immigration officials in their review of these four states. Officials from these states have expressed skepticism about the 250,000 figure, claiming that the numbers are speculative at best.
Casting Doubt on the 250,000 Figure
Experts have pointed out several reasons to be cautious about this figure and the way it has been presented. For instance, the Homeland Security's letters to state officials used more cautious language, referring to a "preliminary review" and stating that there "may be as many as" the number of noncitizens they found on the voter rolls.
Another reason for skepticism is that in the past, initial estimates of noncitizen voters have often dropped dramatically after more thorough vetting.
Did They Actually Vote?
A key question in this discussion is whether these alleged noncitizens actually voted. Neither the Secretary nor his department provided information on how many of the 250,000 noncitizens cast ballots and over what time period.
Recent state reviews have found that even when noncitizens are registered, very few actually cast a vote. Of the millions of votes cast in recent years, only a minuscule number have been found to be cast by noncitizens.