Challenges Continue for France's Extreme Right Despite Gains in Municipal Elections
The far-right political group in France had high expectations for the recent municipal elections, hoping to demonstrate their growing strength before the 2027 presidential race. The party's president, Jordan Bardella, has been a popular figure in the polls leading up to next year's campaign.
However, the results of the first round, especially in crucial southern cities like Marseille and Toulon, suggest that their desired momentum might still be out of reach. Despite their candidates performing well, the party's leaders are not declaring victory yet. They are well aware of the second-round hurdle, which has often been their downfall.
The Second Round Hurdle
Historically, in the second round, various other parties have joined forces to prevent the far-right from taking power. This has been a consistent political weakness for the party, particularly in presidential elections. Unless they can break this pattern, they could face challenges in the second round, even in cities where their candidates did well in the first round.
Leaders of the far-right group are appealing to other right-wing candidates to form an alliance to defeat left-leaning opponents in the second round. However, it seems the intricate dynamics of local race alliances might work against them once more.
"We believe we can win in 60 cities where we came out first," said the party's Vice-President. "We are open to forming alliances with rival lists from the right."
However, there seems to be little interest from other parties to accept this offer of partnership.
The Battle for Major Cities
Marseille, France's second-largest city, is a perfect example of the party's progress and challenges. The far-right candidate nearly tied with the incumbent left-wing Mayor in the first round. This was a significant improvement from their performance in the 2020 local election. However, the candidate now faces a difficult battle against the current mayor, with centrist and conservative forces strategizing to defeat him.
In Nîmes, another key city for the far-right, their candidate came first but will now face opponents from the center-right and center-left. These opponents are expected to gain the votes of candidates not represented in the second round.
In Toulon, the far-right candidate secured an impressive 42 percent of the vote in the first round. However, she may struggle to attract more voters in the second round, putting her center-right rival in a stronger position.
Despite these challenges, a party member stated, "An election is never a done deal." He emphasized the party's "strong presence in the runoffs across the country … that is a change because before the far-right could be strong in some areas and a bit absent in others. Today, it is present almost everywhere."
Managing Expectations
During the campaign, the far-right leadership was careful to manage expectations, adopting a cautious tone even days ahead of the first round. They were mindful of the 2024 snap elections, where a strong first round was followed by a disappointing second round as opponents collaborated against them.
The party's President chose to speak from a safe location on election night, a small city in the south of France, where a victory was almost certain. His speech was measured, praising the "serious, honest work" of outgoing far-right mayors.
"These results reveal an expectation that we know is immense," he said.
However, a political scientist and head of a polling institute said the far-right should not be underestimated in this election. "In the cities where it was competing, it is scoring very high. Now the question of whether they will win is another question, it depends on how voters add up [in the runoffs]."
He emphasized that the election results in large cities, which are closely watched by the media, often overshadow what's happening in smaller constituencies across the country. "None of this really gives us much of a clue about what 2027 will be like."