Atlantic Faces the First Major Hurricane of the Season: Erin
Erin, the first major hurricane of the season, is on a rapid intensification path as it travels above the northeastern Caribbean. The hurricane continues to stir up turbulent waves and brings gusty winds and rain to islands located south of its current trajectory.
Erin's Current Status
As of recent updates, Erin is classified as a Category 4 hurricane with consistent winds of 130 mph. The hurricane's core is approximately 150 miles northeast of Anguilla. The hurricane is projected to travel north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the weekend, while gradually taking a northern turn.
Despite the course, there's no likelihood of a direct landfall on any of the northeastern Caribbean islands. However, tropical alerts have been issued in several areas due to possible threats.
Future Projections
Erin is projected to move north over the western Atlantic next week, veering away from the United States and Bermuda. However, if the storm changes direction more or less sharply than anticipated, the situation could alter. Even if the predictions hold, Erin could still pose risks in the form of turbulent waves and dangerous rip currents.
Throughout Saturday, the hurricane is expected to continue gaining strength, fueled by the warmer than average Atlantic waters. Indeed, by next week, Erin is anticipated to at least double or even triple in size, resulting in rough ocean conditions over the western Atlantic.
Rapid Intensification
Rapid intensification is defined as a situation when a storm's central winds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less. Last year, nine storms underwent rapid intensification in the Atlantic basin. This phenomenon of rapid strengthening is becoming more frequent as higher levels of planet-warming pollution heat the oceans, thus fueling powerful storms.
Precautionary Measures
In readiness for the hurricane, the US Coast Guard captain for the port of San Juan has ordered that the ports of St. Thomas and St. John in the US Virgin Islands, and six seaports in Puerto Rico be closed to all incoming vessel traffic unless specifically authorized.
It's expected that turbulent seas and rip currents around the islands will persist into early next week. Gusty wind and rain, which could be heavy at times, are also expected as Erin passes by.
In some areas, 2 to 4 inches of rain could be recorded over the weekend, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches in the heaviest downpours. Such heavy rain could potentially trigger flash flooding or mudslides.
Favorable Conditions
In terms of fueling Erin, the region's sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal, providing ample energy for the hurricane. While not quite as warm as record levels reached in recent years, the current temperatures are still significantly above average in a world that is increasingly heating up.
Erin: The First Major Hurricane of the Season
Erin is the season's first major hurricane in the Atlantic. Prior to Erin, four other systems - Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter - had traversed the Atlantic basin, but none of them had grown stronger than a tropical storm.
The season's first hurricane typically forms around the second week of August, so Erin was slightly delayed, especially when compared to the early arrivals in recent seasons. Last year, there were already three hurricanes - Beryl, Debby, and Ernesto - by mid-August.
There are more opportunities for tropical systems to develop this month. Long-term forecasts highlight the same part of the Atlantic where Erin developed as an area to keep an eye on for new storms at least until early September.