Uncertainty Surrounds Mission Plan for Moon Landing
The future of a significant moon landing mission is currently in a state of uncertainty. There has been a recent suggestion that a particular commercial spaceflight company might be excluded from the mission, causing a stir in the aerospace industry.
Meanwhile, alternative methods of reaching the lunar surface are being quietly considered. The commercial spaceflight company in question currently has a contract worth billions of dollars to ready its colossal rocket system to transport astronauts to the moon as part of a critical mission. However, due to concerns about the development delays of the rocket and competitive pressure, the space agency requested expedited development plans from the company and another commercial spaceflight company, both of which have responded.
The space agency is also exploring how the wider commercial space industry might achieve the mission faster, suggesting a readiness to change its current partners.
Seeking Faster Paths to the Moon
Despite the possible alternatives appearing simpler than the current moon-landing plan, each one involves building and testing new spacecraft designs. Typically, this process takes at least six to seven years. This could potentially impact the timeline of the mission, as there is a race to land astronauts on the lunar surface before a competing nation does so.
The current mission is scheduled for the mid-2020s, but the ongoing pace of rocket development threatens to push this date further into the future. The intended landing site is an unexplored region of the moon that is believed to be the optimal location due to the presence of ice and sunlight.
Experts suggest that reassessing the contract with the commercial spaceflight company could be wise. The development of a new spacecraft could potentially be faster, they argue, than waiting for the rocket, which presents significant engineering challenges due to its size and design.
Challenges and Setbacks
The rocket system, hailed as the most potent ever built, has had 11 impressive suborbital test flights. However, it has also experienced significant setbacks, with several prototype vehicles exploding during test flights and causing damage to infrastructure in Texas. These issues have raised concerns that the rocket system may not be ready in time to achieve the mission's goals.
Under the current plan, astronauts would be launched aboard a capsule on top of a rocket, both developed by the space agency. After reaching lunar orbit, the astronauts would transfer to the commercial company's rocket, which would transport two people to the moon's surface and then back to lunar orbit. However, the rocket is probably still a long way from being capable of carrying out this task.
Exploring Other Options
A possible alternative is to use a spacecraft built by another commercial company, which already has a contract to provide lunar landers for use later in the mission. This company is developing two models of lunar landers. To expedite the creation of a lunar lander for the critical mission, the company plans to propose a new design that leverages elements of both models.
Another commercial company, which previously worked on the second company's lander design but is not actively part of a partnership, also intends to propose its own two-stage lunar lander that uses parts from a spacecraft it built for the space agency.
Considerations and Concerns
One of the biggest considerations with any of these proposals is the cost. From the space agency's perspective, the commercial company's rocket system is the cheapest proposal due to the company's significant investment in the project. However, other companies have not offered cost estimates for their proposals, which would undoubtedly be expensive.
Despite these challenges, support for the mission seems to be a unifying force for lawmakers. The current administration has been allowing work on the program to continue despite an ongoing government shutdown. However, there are concerns that any attempt to devise a new moon landing plan may be too late to make a significant difference.
Perhaps the real winner of the new "space race" will be the country that can build lasting infrastructure on the moon. The current commercial spaceflight company argues that their rocket system, with its massive cargo bay and immense power, remains the best option for the mission as it could deliver a large amount of cargo to the moon in one trip.