A Possible Temporary Agreement Between the US and Iran
It seems that a temporary agreement between the US and Iran is forming. This arrangement, which is not yet set in stone, could open up more room for discussions on Iran's nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions during a 60-day ceasefire period after it's signed. Reports from Iran suggest that discussions about compensation for war damages could also take place during this time.
Challenges Ahead
Given that there are only 60 days to address three key and contentious issues, many people are left wondering if this deal will actually end the war or just delay dealing with these difficult issues. The last nuclear deal with Iran, which the US backed out of in 2018, required over two years of intense negotiations to reach an agreement. If US negotiators aim for similar outcomes, then a 60-day timeframe might be possible.
Logistical Hurdles
Logistical matters will also need to be addressed during the 60-day ceasefire. If the agreement to tentatively reopen the Strait of Hormuz is signed, the US and Iran will need to figure out how to remove mines from the waterway and convince shipping companies that it's safe to pass through.
Deja Vu?
This situation feels familiar. The US President has, on numerous occasions, raised hopes of a deal with Iran only to change his mind, causing a temporary drop in the markets. His chosen approach to Iran is revealing the limitations of his deal-making style. Iran, known for driving a hard bargain and testing the patience of US Presidents with their stubbornness, is also delaying things.
Dealing with Deception
A previous US President once said, "Fool me once, shame on … shame on you. Fool me… You can't get fooled again!" The world understood he really meant "fool me twice, shame on me". This brings up the question, are we being "fooled again" when the President claims the deal is almost complete?
Why Now?
There are plenty of reasons why reaching a deal this weekend would be beneficial. A deal with Iran could enhance celebrations for his 80th birthday, the 250th US independence anniversary, and the start of the World Cup. Not to mention, it could also set him up for his next international trip to a G7 meeting in France.
Is the End in Sight?
There are whispers that the signing is getting close and that talks on phase one are over. However, it's also been said that phase two, which needs to be completed within 60 days, will be more technical and challenging. The President might be correct, and the end of his war could be near. But don't be surprised if, next week, we find ourselves back where we started, with nothing to show for it.
Revisions and Negotiations
After several rounds of revisions, a mutual understanding with the United States has "effectively reached its final stage" based on Iran's 14-point proposal. Here's what the Iranian media is saying about the draft interim agreement:
Key Points in the Agreement
The following are some key points in the agreement:
Whether the deal includes the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds, a key Iranian demand that had reportedly been holding up the agreement, is not clear. It was said that the status of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program were among the topics that were discussed in the final days of negotiations.
It seems that a temporary agreement between the US and Iran is forming. This arrangement, which is not yet set in stone, could open up more room for discussions on Iran's nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions during a 60-day ceasefire period after it's signed. Reports from Iran suggest that discussions about compensation for war damages could also take place during this time.
Challenges Ahead
Given that there are only 60 days to address three key and contentious issues, many people are left wondering if this deal will actually end the war or just delay dealing with these difficult issues. The last nuclear deal with Iran, which the US backed out of in 2018, required over two years of intense negotiations to reach an agreement. If US negotiators aim for similar outcomes, then a 60-day timeframe might be possible.
Logistical Hurdles
Logistical matters will also need to be addressed during the 60-day ceasefire. If the agreement to tentatively reopen the Strait of Hormuz is signed, the US and Iran will need to figure out how to remove mines from the waterway and convince shipping companies that it's safe to pass through.
Deja Vu?
This situation feels familiar. The US President has, on numerous occasions, raised hopes of a deal with Iran only to change his mind, causing a temporary drop in the markets. His chosen approach to Iran is revealing the limitations of his deal-making style. Iran, known for driving a hard bargain and testing the patience of US Presidents with their stubbornness, is also delaying things.
Dealing with Deception
A previous US President once said, "Fool me once, shame on … shame on you. Fool me… You can't get fooled again!" The world understood he really meant "fool me twice, shame on me". This brings up the question, are we being "fooled again" when the President claims the deal is almost complete?
Why Now?
There are plenty of reasons why reaching a deal this weekend would be beneficial. A deal with Iran could enhance celebrations for his 80th birthday, the 250th US independence anniversary, and the start of the World Cup. Not to mention, it could also set him up for his next international trip to a G7 meeting in France.
Is the End in Sight?
There are whispers that the signing is getting close and that talks on phase one are over. However, it's also been said that phase two, which needs to be completed within 60 days, will be more technical and challenging. The President might be correct, and the end of his war could be near. But don't be surprised if, next week, we find ourselves back where we started, with nothing to show for it.
Revisions and Negotiations
After several rounds of revisions, a mutual understanding with the United States has "effectively reached its final stage" based on Iran's 14-point proposal. Here's what the Iranian media is saying about the draft interim agreement:
- The agreement addresses an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. The US would commit to compelling a certain Middle Eastern country to end hostilities in Beirut if the agreement is signed.
- On the nuclear issue, Iran won't immediately undertake any new commitments and will only engage in nuclear talks during the 60-day negotiation period following the signing of the memorandum, "within the framework of its fundamental principles," including its right to uranium enrichment.
- Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Iran won't commit to ceding management of the strait or restoring conditions to their prewar status. The memorandum only discusses "the normalization of maritime traffic" in the waterway and an end to the US blockade of Iranian ports. The US would have no role in managing the strait, which would only be coordinated regionally with coastal nations.
- In terms of Iran's frozen assets, the agreement would demand the release of $24 billion of Iran's frozen funds – half of which must be made available immediately upon signing. The draft document claims Iran has "obtained specific guarantees from third parties" regarding the eventual payment.
- Iran's demand for the removal of all sanctions against it would be addressed within 60 days. During this period, the US would also commit not to add more military forces in the region or impose new sanctions on Tehran.
- About war reparations, the document includes a reconstruction plan for Iran totaling at least $300 billion. The specific implementation mechanism would be negotiated during the 60 days.
- On Iran's ballistic missile program and proxies, there has been a "definitive removal" of those topics.
Key Points in the Agreement
The following are some key points in the agreement:
- A 60-day ceasefire "on all fronts," including Lebanon, will begin upon signing.
- The Strait of Hormuz will be reopened immediately, without Iran levying any fees for passage. It ensures the free flow of energy and commercial goods. Traffic through the waterway would return to prewar levels after 30 days of signing.
- The US blockade of Iranian ports will be lifted and there would be some sanctions relief "based on the progression of the deal and continued engagement in good faith" – though it does not include a set date for sanctions relief.
- The agreement "satisfies all US requirements on the nuclear issue," including Iran pledging not to obtain a nuclear weapon, as well as the issue of Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Whether the deal includes the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds, a key Iranian demand that had reportedly been holding up the agreement, is not clear. It was said that the status of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program were among the topics that were discussed in the final days of negotiations.