Unprecedented Economic Pessimism among Russians
The ongoing conflict with Ukraine appears to be taking a toll on Russia's local economic outlook, with a record 60% of Russians saying that their area's economic conditions are worsening. This is the first time since 2006 that more than half of the adult population has expressed such a negative view. Previously, the highest levels of pessimism were recorded in 2020 (45%) and 2021 (50%) during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Neutral Stance Turns Negative
From 2010 to 2016, around 40% of Russians were neither positive nor negative about their local economies, feeling things weren't improving or deteriorating. But in recent years, only about one in 10 maintained this neutral stance, with a majority now indicating that the economy is getting worse.
In addition to these economic concerns, 56% of Russians say their living standards are declining, the highest level of pessimism ever recorded. This is the first instance in two decades where more than half of the population believes their standard of living is falling.
War-time Economy Struggles
The rising pessimism comes as Russia's war-time economy shows signs of slowing down. Despite high defense spending that has supported the economy in recent years, the government has now reduced its growth forecast for 2026 from 1.3% to 0.4%. This is in spite of a surge in global oil prices due to the Iran war. The economy is also grappling with labor shortages as military recruitment and defense production compete with the civilian economy for workers.
As the civilian economy weakens, more military spending is required to maintain economic output and employment, making Russia even more dependent on defense spending. This means that pulling back from the war could potentially trigger further economic downfall.
Job Market Perceptions Deteriorate
The outlook on the job market has also worsened significantly this year. Only 35% of Russians believe it's a good time to find a job in their area, while 58% think it's a bad time. This is a decline from the previous year when a surprising 51% of Russians felt it was a good time to find a job, the highest level recorded in two decades and considerably higher than any measurement since the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.
Even though unemployment in Russia remains low because of labor shortages linked to the war, Russians' perceptions of their job market are worse than the actual conditions in 2026, reflecting the overall economic pessimism across the country.
Confidence in Institutions, Media Freedom Falls Dramatically
Public confidence in the military, national government, and the honesty of elections have all seen their largest single-year declines on record this year. Confidence in the military has dropped 13 percentage points to 66%, in the government by 14 points to 53%, and in the honesty of elections by 16 points to 40%.
Views on media freedom have fallen even more dramatically, declining 25 points from a previous high of 59% to a new low of 34%. This sudden loss of trust in institutions and perception of media freedom shows that Russians' dissatisfaction is not just limited to the economy.
Conclusion
Following the onset of the full-scale invasion into Ukraine, Russian public opinion initially rallied, and people became more optimistic about various aspects of life. However, more than four years later, this optimism has been replaced by a prevailing pessimism about the economy, living standards, the job market, and trust in key national institutions.
Russian officials have publicly acknowledged in recent months that the economy is overheating, and this is now beginning to reflect in the public's mood. The longer the war continues, the more it will test people's tolerance towards the conflict and the sacrifices it demands.
The ongoing conflict with Ukraine appears to be taking a toll on Russia's local economic outlook, with a record 60% of Russians saying that their area's economic conditions are worsening. This is the first time since 2006 that more than half of the adult population has expressed such a negative view. Previously, the highest levels of pessimism were recorded in 2020 (45%) and 2021 (50%) during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Neutral Stance Turns Negative
From 2010 to 2016, around 40% of Russians were neither positive nor negative about their local economies, feeling things weren't improving or deteriorating. But in recent years, only about one in 10 maintained this neutral stance, with a majority now indicating that the economy is getting worse.
In addition to these economic concerns, 56% of Russians say their living standards are declining, the highest level of pessimism ever recorded. This is the first instance in two decades where more than half of the population believes their standard of living is falling.
War-time Economy Struggles
The rising pessimism comes as Russia's war-time economy shows signs of slowing down. Despite high defense spending that has supported the economy in recent years, the government has now reduced its growth forecast for 2026 from 1.3% to 0.4%. This is in spite of a surge in global oil prices due to the Iran war. The economy is also grappling with labor shortages as military recruitment and defense production compete with the civilian economy for workers.
As the civilian economy weakens, more military spending is required to maintain economic output and employment, making Russia even more dependent on defense spending. This means that pulling back from the war could potentially trigger further economic downfall.
Job Market Perceptions Deteriorate
The outlook on the job market has also worsened significantly this year. Only 35% of Russians believe it's a good time to find a job in their area, while 58% think it's a bad time. This is a decline from the previous year when a surprising 51% of Russians felt it was a good time to find a job, the highest level recorded in two decades and considerably higher than any measurement since the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.
Even though unemployment in Russia remains low because of labor shortages linked to the war, Russians' perceptions of their job market are worse than the actual conditions in 2026, reflecting the overall economic pessimism across the country.
Confidence in Institutions, Media Freedom Falls Dramatically
Public confidence in the military, national government, and the honesty of elections have all seen their largest single-year declines on record this year. Confidence in the military has dropped 13 percentage points to 66%, in the government by 14 points to 53%, and in the honesty of elections by 16 points to 40%.
Views on media freedom have fallen even more dramatically, declining 25 points from a previous high of 59% to a new low of 34%. This sudden loss of trust in institutions and perception of media freedom shows that Russians' dissatisfaction is not just limited to the economy.
Conclusion
Following the onset of the full-scale invasion into Ukraine, Russian public opinion initially rallied, and people became more optimistic about various aspects of life. However, more than four years later, this optimism has been replaced by a prevailing pessimism about the economy, living standards, the job market, and trust in key national institutions.
Russian officials have publicly acknowledged in recent months that the economy is overheating, and this is now beginning to reflect in the public's mood. The longer the war continues, the more it will test people's tolerance towards the conflict and the sacrifices it demands.