US President's Malaysian Visit Puts Prime Minister Anwar in the Spotlight
The US President's journey to Malaysia for a major summit in Southeast Asia could potentially offer a diplomatic win for the country's Prime Minister, Anwar Ibrahim. This is an uncommon occurrence, as Malaysia, a diverse country of 35 million people between Thailand and Singapore, has traditionally stayed neutral in disputes involving powerful nations.
The President's visit is only the third by a US leader to this Southeast Asian nation, which is preparing for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit. The President, known for his disdain for multilateralism, will be attending this gathering for only the second time after missing the previous years' meetings.
Accompanying the US President will be a group of high-profile leaders from non-ASEAN countries such as the Prime Ministers of Japan and Brazil, as well as South Africa's President. However, the Indian Prime Minister, the Russian and Chinese Presidents have decided not to attend. The US President is anticipated to meet his Chinese counterpart in South Korea during the forthcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.
Malaysia's Diplomatic Tightrope Walk
The US President's visit is indicative of the diplomatic balancing act that the Malaysian government, under Anwar's leadership, is performing. This is particularly significant as Malaysia finds itself caught in the crossfire of the intense rivalry between the US and China, with whom Malaysia has significant economic ties.
With a large presence in Malaysia's technology and oil and gas sectors, the US was the country's biggest foreign investor and third-largest trading partner in a recent year. China, on the other hand, a significant buyer of Malaysian electronics and palm oil, held the top spot in trade and was third for investment during the same year.
However, as the US and China engage in a trade war with escalating tariffs and export controls, Malaysia's efforts to stay neutral are becoming progressively difficult. This is further complicated by regional flashpoints such as Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Navigating the High-Stakes Diplomatic Landscape
According to Thomas Daniel, a strategic analyst, Malaysia aims to maintain productive relations with both China and the US across a range of issues. Anwar sees the US President's visit as an opportunity to strengthen economic ties, advocate for regional peace and stability, and boost ASEAN's international standing.
Despite the challenges, Malaysia's strategy is to avoid getting entangled, maximize options, and reap benefits from both sides without becoming a proxy, as noted by Awang Azman Awang Pawi, a professor at the University of Malaya.
During the US President's visit, topics like US tariffs on Malaysia and China's proposed export controls on rare earths are expected to be front and center. For Malaysia, the focus is on maintaining "rules-based" trade that allows countries to deepen economic ties regardless of their political differences, says Mohd Ramlan Mohd Arshad, a senior lecturer at the MARA University of Technology in Shah Alam.
He points out that an extended economic standoff between the US and China would be the worst-case scenario for Malaysia. During his visit, the US President, who is open about his aspirations for the Nobel Peace Prize, will also likely witness the signing of a peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, which recently experienced a brief border conflict.
Navigating Domestic Politics Amid International Diplomacy
For Anwar, leading a diverse coalition of parties with differing interests, the balancing act extends to domestic politics. US support for Israel's actions in Gaza has been a controversial issue in predominantly Muslim Malaysia, where the situation of Palestinians has sparked many public protests.
As the summit approaches, critics have called on Anwar to revoke the US President's invitation due to his support for the war, which a United Nations commission recently found to constitute genocide. In response, Anwar has emphasized his pragmatic approach to diplomacy for the advancement of his country's interests in an imperfect world.
Sharifah Munirah Alatas, an independent scholar, notes that as a small power, Malaysia has always placed pragmatism at the heart of its foreign policy and cannot afford to do otherwise, especially in the face of the unpredictable US-China tension.
According to Awang Azman, the University of Malaya professor, while the US President's visit will raise Malaysia and ASEAN's profile, the real measure of the summit's success will be tangible outcomes on issues such as the Thailand-Cambodia conflict and trade. He concludes that if these areas stall, the visit, rare as it is, will just be a symbolic gesture, with the narrative focused more on appearances than results.