Potential Missile Attack Ignites Tensions
Recent unverified claims suggest that a missile strike might have been carried out by Russian forces against Lviv Oblast. However, these allegations have yet to be confirmed by Ukrainian authorities. The Ukrainian Air Force circulated a missile warning throughout Ukraine following the perceived threat of a Russian ballistic missile launch from Kapustin Yar. This is the same location where Russia reportedly stores Oreshnik missiles and where the first Russian Oreshnik strike against Ukraine was allegedly launched in November 2024. The Ukrainian Air Force reported explosions in Lviv Oblast.
Uncertainty Surrounding the Strike
Footage was posted online that allegedly shows multiple strikes happening in quick succession, which some speculate could be a demonstration of Oreshnik’s multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) payload. Russian military bloggers claimed an Oreshnik missile hit a gas field and storage facility near Stryi, Lviv Oblast. The Mayor of Lviv City, Andriy Sadovyi, reported a series of potent explosions in the city during the evening, while the Head of Lviv Oblast Military Administration, Maksym Kozytskyi, stated that an unspecified critical infrastructure facility in the region was attacked by Russian forces. However, it remains unknown if an Oreshnik was used against Lviv Oblast.
Escalating Threats
Earlier on the same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky cautioned about the possibility of a “new massive Russian strike” overnight. The US Embassy in Kyiv City had also reported receiving information about a potential large-scale air strike “in the coming days.” It is important to note that Russian forces have only conducted one other known strike with the Oreshnik, which hit Dnipro City in November 2024. This attack was part of a larger missile strike against the city’s critical infrastructure and industrial enterprises.
Disputes Over Security Guarantees
In other developments, Russia once again outright rejected the security guarantees for Ukraine that the United States and Europe are currently finalizing as part of a peace agreement. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Maria Zakharova responded to recent efforts to finalize the details about a multinational force deployment to Ukraine to guarantee a future ceasefire. Zakharova described these efforts as “militaristic declarations” from an “axis of war.”
Russian Military Developments
Reports suggest that the Russian military command continues to create new military units and formations but will likely face challenges in staffing them to their full doctrinal end strength. Recruitment sites are reportedly recruiting for the 1244th Guards Artillery Brigade, a reserve unit of the 31st Combined Arms Army (CAA), possibly located in Tver Oblast. The Russian military command is reportedly equipping the brigade with self-propelled guns, Giatsint-B and D-30 towed howitzers, and Uragan and Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS).
UK Provides Air Defense Systems to Ukraine
Amidst Russia’s escalating long-range drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure, the United Kingdom has provided Ukraine with air defense systems. The UK has delivered 13 Raven air defense systems and two prototype Gravehawk air defense systems to Ukraine, with more Gravehawk systems expected to arrive soon. This aid will help Ukraine bolster its air defense capabilities.
Advancing Russian Forces
Reports indicate that Russian forces have recently made advancements in Sumy Oblast. Verified footage suggests that Russian forces have advanced southwest of Yablunivka, located northeast of Sumy City.
In conclusion, the situation remains tense with potential missile attacks, escalating threats, disputes over security guarantees, military developments, and advancing Russian forces. While efforts are underway to bolster Ukraine's defenses, the outcome of these developments remains uncertain.