What to Expect From the Upcoming Trump-Putin Meeting in Alaska Based on Their Past Encounters

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What to Expect From the Upcoming Trump-Putin Meeting in Alaska Based on Their Past Encounters

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A Look Into the Interactions Between Two World Leaders

The upcoming meeting between the American and Russian leaders is much anticipated, stirring up memories of their past encounters. The pair's individual meetings have always grabbed global attention, revealing some aspects of their intriguing, albeit unpredictable, personal rapport.

As we look forward to their next face-off in Alaska, where they will discuss possible resolutions to the conflict in Ukraine, we can draw a few insights from their past interactions.

Differing Styles in Private Meetings

Both leaders have unique ways of conducting private meetings. The American president had his first meeting with his Russian counterpart in July 2017 during a significant global summit in Germany. This encounter occurred a few months after the American leader assumed office, while his Russian counterpart was a seasoned politician with years of experience.

Their encounter was cordial, consisting of friendly exchange of words and a businesslike handshake that signaled a generally respectful relationship. Over the years, they often expressed mutual admiration. However, the American leader recently expressed his disappointment with the Russian leader over the ongoing violence in Ukraine.

Interestingly, the issue of Ukraine came up during their inaugural meeting. The American president pointed out Russia's destabilizing actions against its neighboring country. This was three years after Russia unlawfully annexed the Crimean peninsula.

Moving Towards Peace

Fast forward to the present, with the Russian leader's full-scale invasion of Ukraine going into its fourth year, the American leader is keen on brokering a ceasefire. He has warned of "very severe consequences" if the war doesn't end. However, he has also indicated that the upcoming meeting could be a "feel-out" exercise.

Previous Encounters

The two leaders met again in 2017 at an economic forum in Vietnam. They were seen conversing among other world leaders, and at one point, the Russian leader seemed to be speaking directly into his counterpart's ear.

The Russian leader is known for his ability to dominate conversations with quick, lengthy monologues, leaving little room for his conversation partners to respond. "Every meeting with him is about power - control of timing, substance, agenda, and tone. You never really know what's coming," observed a diplomat who has previously interacted with him.

Therefore, it was crucial for the American leader to have his own interpreter. His envoy allegedly used Kremlin translators during a meeting earlier this year, which could have been a disadvantage.

Friendliness Displayed Publicly

The most open demonstration of their cordial relationship was during their closed-door discussions in Helsinki, Finland, in July 2018. The American leader defended Russia against allegations of meddling in the 2016 US presidential election, siding with the Russian leader over his own intelligence agencies. This move drew widespread criticism back home.

During the meeting, the Russian leader gifted a football from the recent men's World Cup, hosted by Russia, to his American counterpart. Such gestures are always meticulously planned, according to a former ambassador to Russia. He further noted that the Russian leader often showed "old-world courtesy" during meetings, although he was never a spontaneous person.

Continued Interactions

The two leaders met again at G20 summits in Argentina in November 2018 and in Japan in June 2019. A former national security adviser present at the latter meeting noted their different attention to detail, attributing it to the Russian leader's training in the Soviet intelligence service.

He described the Russian leader as always being well-prepared, calm, and reasonable in his presentation. By contrast, the American leader was known for making impromptu statements that could surprise even his own aides.

The American leader has always believed that a good personal relationship with another leader is a sign of a healthy state-to-state relationship. The Russian leader, aware of this, has been known to use his intelligence training to manipulate his counterpart.

As we look forward to their meeting in Alaska, the American leader has remained noncommittal about the potential outcome. He stated: "I think it'll be good. But it might be bad."

 
Given their history, it seems likely we're in for another show of public cordiality but with a lot of maneuvering behind the scenes. The Russian leader always comes in with a plan, while the American president tends to rely on improvisation and personal rapport. I’m not expecting major breakthroughs, especially on Ukraine, but maybe some smaller agreements could emerge. Anyone else concerned their private discussions won’t be fully disclosed afterward?