The Crucial Parliamentary Election in Iraq
As Iraq prepares for a significant parliamentary vote, the focus is on the potential impact of the results. The election, which is set to take place on a Tuesday, will first allow members of the security forces and displaced individuals in camps to vote on Sunday. The results of this election could determine whether the current Prime Leader gets a chance to serve a second term.
The upcoming election is happening amidst concerns about potential conflict between Israel and Iran, as well as possible strikes by Israel or the U.S. on Iran-supported groups in Iraq. Given these circumstances, Iraq is attempting to delicately handle its relationships with Tehran and Washington.
What to Expect in the Election
This year's vote will be the seventh since a major regime change in 2003. After the fall of the prior ruler, Iraq was left in a state of turmoil that led to a brutal civil war, giving rise to extremist groups. However, in recent years, the violence has decreased. Now, many Iraqi citizens are more concerned about the lack of jobs and the poor quality of public services, including frequent power outages despite the country's abundant energy resources.
According to election law, women must hold a minimum of 25% of the 329 parliamentary seats, and nine seats are reserved for religious minorities. The Speaker of Parliament is traditionally a Sunni, the Prime Minister is Shiite, and the President is a Kurd, as per the power-sharing system established post-2003.
Interest in voting has been on a downward trend. For instance, only 41% of eligible voters participated in the last election, marking a record low. Furthermore, only 21.4 million out of 32 million eligible voters have updated their information and obtained their voting cards, a decrease from the previous election.
Unlike past elections, there will be no voting from outside of the country. There will be 7,744 candidates competing, most of whom are from a range of largely sectarian-aligned parties, with some independent candidates.
Key Players in the Election
Among the participating candidates are blocs led by former Prime Minister, a cleric, and several linked to armed groups; competing Sunni factions led by a former Parliament speaker and current speaker; and the two main Kurdish parties.
Several powerful militias linked to Iran are also taking part in the election through their associated political parties. However, a prominent player in the country's politics, who leads a popular movement, is sitting out this election. His bloc won the most seats in the previous election but withdrew after unsuccessful government formation negotiations, leading to a standoff with rival parties.
His stronghold, home to approximately 40% of the capital's population, has long been a key factor in shaping the balance of power. However, in the lead up to this election, the usually bustling streets were almost completely devoid of campaign material, with only a few signs promoting an election boycott visible.
Some reformist groups formed from mass anti-government protests are participating but have struggled with internal divisions and a lack of funding and political support.
Challenges Ahead
There have been numerous accusations of corruption and vote-buying ahead of the election. As a result, hundreds of candidates have been disqualified by election officials for a variety of reasons, including alleged insults to religious rituals or members of the armed forces.
While violence has generally decreased, a candidate was assassinated in the lead-up to this year's election. The victim, a Council member from the capital, was killed by a car bomb. Five suspects have been arrested in connection with the murder, which is being prosecuted as a terrorist act.
The current Prime Leader, who assumed power with the support of pro-Iran parties, has attempted to balance Iraq’s relationships with Tehran and Washington. He has positioned himself as a pragmatic leader focused on improving public services. However, his path to a second term is not guaranteed. Only one Iraqi prime minister has served more than one term since 2003.
The election results won't necessarily determine the Prime Leader's future. In past elections, the winning bloc has often been unable to impose its preferred candidate. The Prime Leader currently faces disagreements within his own bloc and increasing pressure from the U.S. to control the country's militias.
A significant issue is the future of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of militias that formed to combat extremist groups. Despite being officially placed under the control of the Iraqi military in 2016, the group continues to operate with significant autonomy. Members of this coalition will be voting alongside Iraqi army soldiers and other security forces.