A Shift in Alliances: India and China's Budding Friendship
Half a decade ago, the United States was greeted with open arms in India, while China was met with condemnation. The then-president of the U.S. addressed a massive crowd in India's Ahmedabad city, showcasing the strong ties between the two nations. At the same time, relations with China took a downward turn following a border dispute which resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers.
As a result of this conflict, India imposed a ban on more than 200 Chinese applications, including a popular video-sharing app, and increased its strategic cooperation with the U.S. However, changes in geopolitical circumstances and unfavorable trade policies towards India have led to a softening of relations between India and China, while simultaneously weakening U.S. influence in Asia.
The "Dragon-Elephant Tango"
Recent developments have shown a marked improvement in the relationship between India and China. The Prime Minister of India met with China's top diplomat in a gesture of respect for each other's interests and a sign of steady progress in bilateral relations.
During a two-day visit, the diplomat also met with India’s foreign minister and national security advisor to discuss the disputed border region. Both sides agreed on confidence-building measures, including resuming direct flights, simplifying visa processes, and facilitating border trade. In a significant move, Beijing also allowed Indian pilgrims to visit holy sites in Tibet.
The leaders of both countries also discussed the possibility of an early settlement of parts of their long-disputed border, the primary source of historical tension between them. Additionally, the Prime Minister of India formally accepted an invitation to attend a regional summit led by China and Russia, marking his first visit to China in over seven years.
Changing Geopolitical Landscape
The shift in India's stance towards China seems to stem from the uncertainty and rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. Recent U.S. policies and tariff wars have left India with little choice but to reduce the number of adversaries, including China.
On the other hand, the U.S. has hosted Pakistan's army chief twice this year, including one unprecedented meeting at the White House. The U.S. president also claimed to have brokered a ceasefire that ended fighting between India and Pakistan, despite India denying any mediation by the U.S.
Impact on Trade
If India and China continue to forge stronger ties, it could ease the blow of U.S. tariffs for both nations. As the U.S. imposes barriers on key Indian exports, smoother trade with China and access to Chinese markets could help India lessen its reliance on the U.S. market.
In recent years, India recorded a trade deficit of nearly $100bn with China, primarily due to a surge in imports of electronic goods. Despite this, China is India's largest trading partner after the U.S. China has indicated willingness to provide greater market access for Indian goods, which could provide some relief from U.S. tariffs.
Strategic Gain
For China, a closer relationship with India would be a strategic win, increasing its influence in the Asia Pacific region. Current tensions have resulted in a significant geopolitical loss for both nations.
Some experts suggest the rapprochement between India and China creates room for Asian-led trade blocs independent of Washington. However, there are inherent limitations to how closely India and China can cooperate. The challenge of reducing overdependence on any one source, especially China, has only deepened with the new U.S. tariffs.
The Role of the Quad
Since the Cold War, India has maintained a policy of strategic autonomy, partnering with various countries on specific issues without formally joining any military alliances or positioning itself against other major powers. However, the U.S., under multiple administrations, has seen India as a democratic counterweight to China in the Asia Pacific region.
As India's relationship with China warms, this could complicate U.S. efforts to isolate China in global institutions. A friendlier stance between India and China might temper India's positioning within the Quad, a strategic forum including the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia.
Despite these changes, the strategic relevance of the Quad remains, particularly over shared goals such as supply chains, emerging technologies, climate cooperation, and maritime security.
While the U.S. president has previously focused on strengthening the Quad, recent actions seem to undermine its cohesion. However, if U.S. priorities shift back to the Asia Pacific region, it may face an altered landscape and may find it challenging to persuade India to join any anti-China coalition.