European Leaders Worried About Being Sidelined in Trump-Putin Negotiations
European leaders are increasingly concerned that they may be reduced to mere spectators as the Russian President and the American President negotiate over Ukraine's future. They worry that the American President may make a deal with the Russian leader that could potentially undermine the transatlantic alliance and threaten Ukraine's sovereignty.
The anxiety stems from the fact that not much is known about what Russia has offered to end the conflict in Ukraine. The Russian President has kept his cards close to his chest, while the American envoy who met with him recently has also remained tight-lipped about their discussions.
The American President, on the other hand, has hinted at potential territorial swaps to improve the situation in the region. However, European leaders are skeptical about this, fearing that it may not necessarily lead to a mutually beneficial outcome. They worry that the Russian President's demands may still remain uncompromising, leaving Ukraine vulnerable.
Europe's Concerns Over Territorial Changes and Security
European leaders are particularly disturbed by the possibility that the current American administration may not be bothered by the idea of redrawing international borders. They view this as a dangerous precedent that could potentially destabilize the region. In a united response, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and the EU, along with Poland and Finland, have asserted that international borders should never be altered by force.
Adding to the confusion, the American administration has provided varying descriptions of the Russian President's demands for a ceasefire in Ukraine. A common factor in all these versions, however, is that Russia wants Ukrainian forces to withdraw from parts of the Donetsk region, including significant cities like Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostyantynivka.
Experts warn that such a concession could lead to Ukraine losing its primary defensive line in Donetsk Oblast, leaving it exposed to future aggression. This concern is echoed by those following the conflict closely, who caution that any territory ceded to Russia could be used as a launch pad for further aggression.
Uncertain Future of Ukraine
There are numerous uncertainties regarding the future of other Ukrainian regions and the status of Crimea. It's unclear whether Russia will demand control over additional regions of Ukraine or if they will accept a freeze along the current frontlines. Also, it's uncertain whether Russia will insist on Ukraine recognizing Moscow's sovereignty over Crimea and what concessions they might offer in return.
European leaders believe that a ceasefire should be the first step towards negotiations and that the current line of contact should be the starting point. They also suggest the possibility of a European "reassurance force" to ensure the ceasefire, although it's doubtful whether Russia will allow any NATO member to contribute to such a force.
Europe's Hands Tied
Despite their best efforts, European leaders may be fighting a losing battle. Their attempts to influence the American President have so far been unsuccessful. They have repeatedly found themselves reacting to unpredictable decisions made by the American administration.
The lack of a strategic identity independent of the US has left European leaders in a difficult position. French President Emmanuel Macron has been urging for a more autonomous European strategic identity for years, but progress has been slow. Despite their desire to support and protect Ukraine, European leaders find themselves reduced to spectators, left guessing what decisions may be made without them.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has insisted that any agreement between the US and Russia should include Ukraine and the EU, as it's a matter of their security. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz echoed these sentiments, stating that territorial issues between Russia and America should not be decided without the involvement of Europeans and Ukrainians.
Regardless of the assurances given by the American administration to consult European partners before the summit, it remains unclear what the consultation will entail. Observers point out that the real issue might be that the US itself lacks a clear strategy on Ukraine, which only adds to the uncertainty and risks involved.