Deepening Tensions Between Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates
There's a clear rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that's been escalating. The cause of this strain is the competition over economic, political, and security matters. Initially, it was a friendly competition, but it has now evolved into a rivalry. The root of this conflict is Saudi Arabia's ambitious Vision 2030 plan, which aims to challenge the UAE's dominance in finance, tourism, and commerce.
The Rivalry Stirs Up
Back when Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, took charge, the relationship between the two nations was cordial. However, cracks started to appear in their united front due to disagreements on regional issues.
Despite their initial agreement on several common issues, the shared agenda began to crumble. As a result, Saudi Arabia started veering away from the UAE, warming its relations with countries such as Iran, Qatar, and Turkey. This change in stance was primarily due to Saudi Arabia's reassessment of its approach towards achieving its domestic agenda. Therefore, it decided to forge warmer ties with countries it previously viewed as antagonists.
Conflict of Interests
Currently, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have disagreements over issues involving Israel, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. The main difference is their approach to these issues. Saudi Arabia aims for stability, barring any direct threat to the kingdom, while the UAE is focused on preventing the rise of Islamists. This disagreement has led to heated conflicts, most notably in Yemen, where factions backed by both nations have collided.
Vision 2030 vs UAE's Dominance
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are publicly downplaying their differences to reassure foreign investors. However, the tension between the two nations is likely to increase. Both nations are competing for investments in the same sectors. The success of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 could come at the cost of the UAE's dominance in finance, technology, tourism, and logistics.
The UAE is determined not to fall behind, similar to how Bahrain lost its regional dominance to the UAE in the 1970s. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is leveraging its large market size and greater industry and manufacturing capacity to surpass the UAE. Saudi Arabia's larger population provides more room for domestic consumption, but it also means more people to support.
Competitive Advantage
The UAE has long been an attractive destination for foreign investment and talent. It has an established edge in various sectors and allows for more social freedom. Its ability to handle trade and logistics is unmatched in the region. However, Saudi Arabia, in its drive to diversify its economy, is not backing down. It is challenging the UAE in sectors such as AI, renewable energy, and global logistics.
Seeking Resolution
There is still a possibility of easing tensions between the two nations. They could cooperate in specific industries or try to reach a consensus on their desired outcomes in various conflict zones. However, the likelihood of escalating tensions seems higher.
The Role of the United States and Europe
Given the influence of both Saudi Arabia and the UAE over oil markets and critical trade routes, the United States and Europe should avoid taking sides in this rivalry. Choosing a side could lead to loss of influence and investment opportunities with the other. If one Gulf power feels its status is slipping, they might lean towards China, which could have significant geopolitical implications.
It would be wise for the U.S. to maintain a strong presence in the region and hedge between the two Gulf countries. Mending their division might require a more personal touch, as the rivalry between the two nations is not just about national interests, but also personal disagreements between their leaders.