Five Possible Paths for Israel’s Next Government
A small change in the election results could decide whether Benjamin Netanyahu stays as Israel’s prime minister, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot takes the job, or voters are called back to the polls. With votes being cast, the outcome is uncertain. Neither political side is sure to win enough seats to govern alone, and several different agreements could follow.
Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats. A party or group of parties needs at least 61 seats for a majority. Polls suggest that neither Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious allies nor the parties trying to replace him are likely to reach that number. Even so, lawmakers may be able to form a government through negotiations, including a minority government or a deal between rivals.
1. Eisenkot Leads an Opposition Coalition
If the parties seeking to replace Netanyahu win enough seats between them, they could try to form a government led by Eisenkot. A possible coalition could include his centrist Yashar party, Naftali Bennett’s Together party, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu and Yair Golan’s left-wing Democrats.
The parties do not agree on everything. Bennett and Liberman have been reluctant to accept Eisenkot as prime minister. Still, if his party becomes the largest in the opposition group, he would be the likely choice to lead it.
Winning enough seats would be only the first step. The parties would then need to settle their differences and agree on how to govern together.
2. Netanyahu Returns With a Majority
Netanyahu could remain prime minister if his right-wing and religious bloc wins at least 61 seats. Polls suggest this outcome is less likely than an opposition majority, but it would allow him to rebuild his current coalition.
That government could include Likud, the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s far-right Otzma Yehudit, and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party.
The People of Israel party, led by former military commander Ofer Winter, might also join if it wins enough votes to enter parliament. If it falls short of the required 3.25% of votes, Netanyahu could have a harder time reaching a majority.
3. A Minority Government Relies on Outside Support
Eisenkot might try to form a government even if the opposition has more seats among Jewish-led parties than Netanyahu’s bloc but still lacks a majority. Under Israel’s parliamentary rules, a new government does not always need 61 votes to take office. It must win a confidence vote, which can pass with a simple majority of the lawmakers who vote. In some cases, that could mean winning by just one vote.
Eisenkot has said he will not negotiate with Arab or ultra-Orthodox parties, make political deals with them, or offer them concessions. He may expect Arab lawmakers to abstain from the confidence vote rather than help Netanyahu stay in power.
Even if the government took office, it might need support from Arab parties or Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox groups to survive later votes. Those groups could seek agreements over government funding and military conscription. Without enough outside support, the government could fall quickly.
Liberman is a major obstacle to this plan. He has rejected supporting a minority government, arguing it would not last and might help Netanyahu win another election. Unless he changes his position, the option appears unlikely, even though some opposition lawmakers would prefer a short period without Netanyahu over leaving him in office.
4. Netanyahu and Eisenkot Share Power
A broad government bringing together Netanyahu and Eisenkot is another possibility. It could become more attractive if Arab parties win strong results and leave both main political camps far short of a majority. One possible arrangement would have the two leaders take turns serving as prime minister.
Both men have publicly rejected working together, so reaching a deal could be difficult. If the election creates a long deadlock and neither side can form a workable coalition, President Isaac Herzog could try to help the rivals find a compromise.
5. Another Election, With Netanyahu as Caretaker
If Netanyahu’s bloc wins more seats among Jewish-led parties than the opposition but does not reach 61, a new election could follow. That could happen if neither side agrees to work with parties outside its political camp.
Netanyahu would stay on as caretaker prime minister until a new government takes office. His time in power could continue for several months, even without a fresh parliamentary majority. The political uncertainty would last, and another election might not produce a different result.
How the Government-Forming Process Works
Even a clear election result may not lead to a quick government. The Central Elections Committee has eight days to publish official results. Election workers expect to finish counting before that deadline, which could allow the newly elected Knesset to be sworn in about two weeks after the vote.
After the results are official, President Herzog will meet with representatives of the parties elected to parliament. They will recommend who should try to form a government. The president must then give the task to the lawmaker he believes has the best chance of building a coalition. That is often the person with the most support from other parties, but the leader of the largest party does not automatically go first.
The first lawmaker has 28 days to form a government. The president can grant extra time, up to a total of 14 more days. If the attempt fails, Herzog can choose another lawmaker, who gets 28 days with no extension, or announce that forming a government appears impossible.
If that announcement is made, or the second attempt also fails, lawmakers have a final 21-day period to ask the president in writing to appoint a candidate. At least 61 members of parliament must support that request. The chosen candidate then has 14 days to form a government.
If none of these efforts succeeds, the Knesset is automatically dissolved and another election must be held. The outgoing government stays in power until a new one takes office.